Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 1.265041 1.334127 1.405843 1.486018 1.573355 1.665840 1.771481
2025-12-21 1.152190 1.248711 1.353206 1.475385 1.615155 1.771066 1.959565
2025-12-28 1.093692 1.208012 1.335492 1.489460 1.672121 1.884159 2.152321
2026-01-04 1.035657 1.160339 1.302532 1.478631 1.693638 1.951398 2.289807
2026-01-11 1.002020 1.137072 1.294243 1.493417 1.743205 2.051989 2.472448
2026-01-18 0.966990 1.109109 1.277352 1.494790 1.773908 2.128440 2.627401
2026-01-25 0.948607 1.099519 1.281216 1.520713 1.835521 2.246785 2.846179
2026-02-01 0.907376 1.059483 1.244805 1.492526 1.823745 2.265429 2.926151
2026-02-08 0.864614 1.015572 1.201279 1.452377 1.792886 2.254835 2.961357
2026-02-15 0.837381 0.989993 1.179730 1.439552 1.797481 2.292581 3.069273
2026-02-22 0.818090 0.973605 1.169053 1.440219 1.819950 2.356071 3.220327
2026-03-01 0.793510 0.949417 1.147087 1.424282 1.817749 2.382845 3.315107
2026-03-08 0.763166 0.917533 1.114813 1.394174 1.795683 2.381563 3.369389
2026-03-15 0.742499 0.897689 1.097861 1.384567 1.802725 2.424557 3.500986
2026-03-22 0.731675 0.890318 1.097144 1.397343 1.842812 2.520387 3.731456
2026-03-29 0.713399 0.872328 1.081216 1.387514 1.848150 2.561299 3.868908
2026-04-05 0.704459 0.866499 1.081588 1.400934 1.889185 2.661983 4.125750
2026-04-12 0.691900 0.855296 1.074001 1.402180 1.911104 2.732277 4.333165
2026-04-19 0.687431 0.854921 1.081397 1.425691 1.969084 2.867336 4.684456
2026-04-26 0.667384 0.832473 1.056828 1.400126 1.946761 2.861560 4.747921
2026-05-03 0.644806 0.805983 1.025794 1.363670 1.905028 2.818913 4.729338
2026-05-10 0.631000 0.791384 1.011365 1.352014 1.903400 2.847658 4.867094
2026-05-17 0.621596 0.782686 1.005124 1.352619 1.921967 2.913999 5.095703